by YAP MUN CHING on THE SUN DAILY
http://www.thesundaily.my/news/764803
THE air is choking and the noise incessant. Out on the streets of Saigon, one may survive the chaotic traffic but it may also be only a matter of time before the noxious fumes take their toll.
On my latest visit to the city, a little more than four years since my last and eight years since my first, Vietnam seems to have gone over something of an economic crest to end up somewhere in a trough. Although it was once assessed glowingly by fund managers and economists along with the other regional darling, Indonesia, the country seems to be going through a harsh reality check.
Double-digit inflation, rising inequality and a deeply troubled banking sector has brought the Vietnam economic miracle to a standstill, a fact admitted even by the state-controlled media. According to English language newspaper Viet Nam News, Vietnam is expected to miss this year's GDP growth target of 5.2-5.7%. With the spectre of rampant inflation looming and a domestic credit crunch, the government's hands are tied in attempting any expansionary measures. Instead, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung has had to call for the State Bank of Viet Nam to restructure debts and reduce bad debts.
The effect of the heady years of the last decade can be felt most strongly here in Saigon, the de facto commercial capital of the country. On the leafy streets of District 1, once bustling shops now seem tired and jaded. Where stores on the main shopping street of Dong Khoi once did brisk business, storefronts are now either closed or taken over by large property developers to be converted into faceless shopping malls or bland office towers.
"It is very tough now. Locals are not spending and tourists are buying much less. Our export markets in Europe have also dried up so we are now only staying afloat with our stock inventory," said Duong, an entrepreneur who runs one of Vietnam's top interior furnishing stores.
To add to her difficulties, Duong has had to move her Saigon store from its prime location just off Dong Khoi, after 10 years building her business and reputation.
"The shop was sold to an owner who wants to break down 10 shops to build a hotel. We are being crowded out by big businesses with deeper pockets," she said.
The visual impact of this is that from the vantage point of the Saigon Opera House, a stone's throw from Duong's former store location, the charming skyline is now marred by glass towers and neon shopping centre lights which clash sharply with the unique architecture that so defined Vietnamese cities like Hanoi and Saigon.
In 2004, on my first visit, it appeared that Ho Chi Minh City thrived on local enterprise. Now, that spirit seems to have been replaced by a sense of desperation to get rich quick at a cost that was stripping the city of its very soul.
Some members of the Vietnamese art community believe that Vietnam's inability to get itself out of crisis mode has very much to do with this.
"The establishment is very conservative. It does not encourage creativity or independence. Even in art, the establishment believes there is only one type of Vietnamese art and everyone is supposed to abide by certain guidelines," said Dinh Le, one of Vietnam's top contemporary artist. "When you take this approach to deal with the crisis, you are in trouble. The government simply does not know what to do."
The one silver lining that the difficult times has created is the condition for more debates on how Vietnam sees its future. Long time Saigon resident, Australian Zoe Butt believes that the opening up of new media channels has enabled many more young Vietnamese to exchange views on how they want the country to go forward.
"The government's instinct is to clamp down on debate but it is so much harder to stop people from discussing these issues now," she said. "Facebook has made a huge difference."
It may be a while before Vietnam can regain its stride. As with many other developing countries, its fate is tied in with that of developed countries that are now going through their own crises. How soon and how strong the Vietnamese recovery will be depends on how the world economy picks itself up. It will also depend on whether enough time will have passed for the Vietnamese to figure out how they want to move forward.
